So the Orioles don't want to give out long-term free agent deals. Here's how they can elevate their payroll to improve despite that.

Operating under the belief that the Orioles are somewhere between rebuilding and contending, are there ways they can strategically spend in 2022 without compromising the future?

At the risk of alienating a corner of readers who have provided plenty of joy this winter in their defiant belief that Carlos Correa will be the Opening Day shortstop, it’s pretty easy to take Mike Elias at his word when he says a long-term contract in free agency isn’t likely. 

There’s a lot of land between a megadeal for one of the game’s top stars and doing the bare minimum to fortify his roster for another rough season, though, and the days since MLB lifted the lockout colored what that could look like.

We know the Orioles will be aggressive on the waiver claim front. We know they’ll be happy to give out value-driven minor league deals. But that has been the case for years, and in this space the operating assumption is that the Orioles are acting differently when it comes to team building. 

How differently? Well, they’ve already handed out nearly as many major league deals this winter (Rougned Odor, Jordan Lyles, and Robinson Chirinos) than in the previous three offseasons combined (four). Lyles’ $7 million guaranteed is the largest financial commitment to a player Elias has made. 

All that still puts the Orioles a comfortable $170 million below the first luxury tax threshold, so there’s still room to operate without paying a penalty. If Elias has ownership’s permission to meaningfully add to their estimated $64 million payroll, and he wants to get creative while helping the team now and in the future, here are some ways to do it.

[Post-publication note: for the purposes of 26-man roster payroll, the Orioles have a shade over $30 million in commitments. The above number represents their full 40-man payroll and benefits.]

Go buy a prospect for the price of a big leaguer

At the 2019 winter meetings, the Angels essentially sold that year’s first round pick (infielder Will Wilson) to the San Francisco Giants along with Zack Cosart and his $12 million contract. Elias said then, when I asked if the same type of trade could happen where the Orioles used their low payroll to take on another team’s headache and add a prospect, that there were “budgetary considerations” with such deals. 

The implication was the Giants had the budget for it, and the Orioles did not. If they do now, there could be some opportunities to help teams that are closer to that threshold and still trying to add free agents achieve those goals while still achieving their own

Take the San Diego Padres, for example, whose ambitions remain as their payroll They could try to move someone like Eric Hosmer (owed $20.65 million in 2022, then $13.625 million annually from 2023-2025 if he doesn’t opt out of his contract this fall) or Wil Myers ($22.5 million owed in 2022, with a club option at $20 million for 2023) to create more flexibility.

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Neither is an obvious fit for the Orioles, but that’s not really the idea. The thought would be to take on someone else’s problem for the privilege of taking on future talent along with him. If the Padres agreed to chip in money, a top-10 prospect, and two recent international signings of the Orioles’ choosing, does that get them to the table for a deal like this? It’s a short-term hit financially, something the team’s general trajectory over the last few years shows they’re loath to do, but there could be a real long-term benefit to it if executed well.

San Diego isn’t the only team who could be in the mix for this. Maybe the Mets will need to move someone because they pay for a better player at that position. Maybe Oakland, despite getting a boatload of money when they traded for him, wants to move Elvis Andrus. The Orioles could get creative and come away with a prospect or two for it simply for the cost of money — and considering he basically benched Chris Davis, Brandon Hyde shouldn’t sweat the idea of another high-priced former star that doesn’t fit what they’re trying to do.

Be a bridge-year option for an hitter

The idea this week that Correa would just take a massive one-year deal and set himself up for a payday not impacted by the lockout next winter was an intriguing one, but that’s seeming more and more unlikely.

Instead, think more like Marcus Semien ending up with the Toronto Blue Jays last year. He signed late last winter as a market for a long-term deal didn’t materialize, taking $18 million for one year from the Blue Jays and betting on himself to correct the market through his performance. He had a career year, with 45 home runs and an .873 OPS, leading the Texas Rangers to give him a $175 million deal before the lockout. 

Every year, teams seem to benefit from players who expected multi-year deals instead taking shorter ones and playing with a vengeance. Could the Orioles snag a player like that?

I can’t imagine anyone who was expecting a long-term deal has given up the idea of getting one just yet – we’re less than a week from the lockout being lifted – but should that happen, the Orioles should take a shot. 

That said, there aren’t a lot of realistic candidates for this. Correa and fellow top shortstop Trevor Story both turned down the qualifying offer, which means the Orioles would give up their third-highest draft pick—which will be in the 30s and comes with a seven-figure bonus pool. I can’t imagine they’d bite there.

Most remaining position player free agents remaining are first basemen or corner outfielders, too, and the Orioles have too many players for those positions as it is. That basically leaves Kris Bryant as the only option remaining, and it doesn’t seem like he’ll need to settle for a short deal. Turns out they may have missed out on this path for now.

(If anyone is interested in my writing process, this is as good a glimpse as any: get an idea, write it as I’m researching it, then decide to leave it in despite having disproved said idea. Process-oriented is a thing, and I am that.)

Double down on the Lyles thought process

There are no such stumbling blocks to how they can round out their rotation, which is fortunate because two ideas that prove implausible would probably have rendered this exercise moot.

It seems like even minor league deals for starting pitching this spring are carrying salaries of over $2 million if the player makes the big leagues, so the Orioles’ preferred method of filling out their rotation may not be as cost-effective as it once was. 

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That shouldn’t be the focus, though. The top of the free agent market remaining for starting pitchers, featuring Zack Greinke, Michael Pineda, Danny Duffy, and Matthew Boyd, makes for unique options for the Orioles should they choose to go the route of structuring another contract the way they did Lyles’ deal.

Elias said this week in Sarasota that it was appealing to have the veteran presence and reliability that Lyles brings and many of those would, too. He also liked the benefit of, if the deal working out, having a 2023 option to keep him around for when the Orioles are good. Some of those pitchers might require more up-front money for 2022, and may want to see if the left field fence adjustment really makes Camden Yards a better place to pitch.

But if the Orioles use their hypothetical payroll capability this way, it could have the same kind of benefits they hoped to get from all the inexpensive minor league deals, only with a higher floor: they could get coverage for their young arms, and they could trade them midseason for prospects if things go well.

Having another Lyles type for that possibility to occur with could be good in that the Orioles can move one in July and still have one for 2023, when it seems like they might be really ready to be good. Elias teased that top pitching prospects Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall could be in the big leagues quickly this summer, and they’re no-doubt going to contribute to that.

Operating with that assumption makes it less imperative to add another higher-profile pitcher as the long list of homegrown starters the Orioles hope will fully come good this season (Dean Kremer, Keegan Akin, Bruce Zimmermann, Mike Baumann, Zac Lowther, and Alexander Wells) will have ample opportunity to do so before those two top arms arrive.

That’s not to say the Orioles shouldn’t pay market-price for another legitimate starter, though. Elias has often said a better rotation will help the bullpen. A better bullpen will help everyone involved. And if the Orioles can use their low payroll to possibly price in some rotation security for when they start being good in 2023, they should.