In an effort to self-reflect on a big part of my offseason calendar as well as how far the Orioles have come, we begin a look-back on their Baseball America prospect lists, starting with 2018.
I know this was primarily set up for self-reflection, but one thing that could be interesting is if there is anything -- as you look back -- in your notes where others (scouts, coaches, etc.) had something to say about a prospect that surprises you when you look back on it now. Maybe a comment that was spot-on but was hard to recognize at the time...or a projection/comp that seems especially interesting in hindsight.
There are definitely instances of that throughout the years, and I often go back to them especially the year of to kind of fill in stories and drop interesting tidbits. I've considered adding a section like that this year, but especially since I'm in the process of reporting out this year's list, it would make the part where I tell people what they say won't be seen anywhere feel hollow. There's someone in 2019 who I do plan on going back to, though, to see what people actually said.
Interesting look back. I think your risk profiles were interesting. Looks like you had pitchers skew a little higher on the risk profile meter than hitters, on average. Which is probably fair, just given the variances you see on a daily basis on the mound. Would you agree? Also, Austin Hays was mentioned on a twitter account yesterday (@hotstoveintel) as being a potential non-tender account this off-season. What are your thoughts on Hays position in the organization at this point?
I definitely put more risk on pitchers, mostly for health reasons, but also because that allows you to maybe be higher on the grade and still have them line up in the right place. I think it's also the types of pitchers, especially in this era, where we're talking hard throwers who aren't often healthy. In other instances, as far as health or age are concerned, risk grades are recommended from the top. It is definitely something worth noting, and the 2019 one is full of examples.
It would be great if you could somehow link to these so we could re-read the capsules.
I don't think you were wrong to highlight the positional uncertainty with Mountcastle. Through 1,335 career big league plate appearances, he's shown some pop, strikes out a wee bit too much, and doesn't get on base nearly enough. That's a very different player at shortstop or third base than it is at first base or even left field. I don't know that he's first division regular, either: his 107 wRC+ this year ranks 30th out of first basemen and designated hitters with at least 250 plate appearances (in 2021, that was 113 and 26th; he spent a lot more time at DH in 2021). The standard to hit at first base is just so high that the positional uncertainty really, really mattered.
You make great points on Mountcastle. He worries me. For 3 months of this past season -- very nearly half -- his bat disappeared. His defense, while improved, isn't so off-the-charts amazing at a low-priority defensive position to make up for it. He needs to find consistency. While the wall may have robbed him of some homers, it doesn't account for the wild swings from month to month.
Of note to me was how easily it seemed that Mike Yaz slipped through the cracks.
I know this was primarily set up for self-reflection, but one thing that could be interesting is if there is anything -- as you look back -- in your notes where others (scouts, coaches, etc.) had something to say about a prospect that surprises you when you look back on it now. Maybe a comment that was spot-on but was hard to recognize at the time...or a projection/comp that seems especially interesting in hindsight.
There are definitely instances of that throughout the years, and I often go back to them especially the year of to kind of fill in stories and drop interesting tidbits. I've considered adding a section like that this year, but especially since I'm in the process of reporting out this year's list, it would make the part where I tell people what they say won't be seen anywhere feel hollow. There's someone in 2019 who I do plan on going back to, though, to see what people actually said.
Interesting look back. I think your risk profiles were interesting. Looks like you had pitchers skew a little higher on the risk profile meter than hitters, on average. Which is probably fair, just given the variances you see on a daily basis on the mound. Would you agree? Also, Austin Hays was mentioned on a twitter account yesterday (@hotstoveintel) as being a potential non-tender account this off-season. What are your thoughts on Hays position in the organization at this point?
I definitely put more risk on pitchers, mostly for health reasons, but also because that allows you to maybe be higher on the grade and still have them line up in the right place. I think it's also the types of pitchers, especially in this era, where we're talking hard throwers who aren't often healthy. In other instances, as far as health or age are concerned, risk grades are recommended from the top. It is definitely something worth noting, and the 2019 one is full of examples.
It would be great if you could somehow link to these so we could re-read the capsules.
I don't think you were wrong to highlight the positional uncertainty with Mountcastle. Through 1,335 career big league plate appearances, he's shown some pop, strikes out a wee bit too much, and doesn't get on base nearly enough. That's a very different player at shortstop or third base than it is at first base or even left field. I don't know that he's first division regular, either: his 107 wRC+ this year ranks 30th out of first basemen and designated hitters with at least 250 plate appearances (in 2021, that was 113 and 26th; he spent a lot more time at DH in 2021). The standard to hit at first base is just so high that the positional uncertainty really, really mattered.
You make great points on Mountcastle. He worries me. For 3 months of this past season -- very nearly half -- his bat disappeared. His defense, while improved, isn't so off-the-charts amazing at a low-priority defensive position to make up for it. He needs to find consistency. While the wall may have robbed him of some homers, it doesn't account for the wild swings from month to month.