The Orioles' rebuild holdovers are now a 'big core part' of the lineup. The team's success in 2023 may hinge on them.
The excitement may be elsewhere, but getting the best from Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, Anthony Santander, and Ryan Mountcastle will make a big difference for the Orioles.
When they shared an outfield together back in Bowie, before any of them had debuted at Camden Yards, Anthony Santander would turn to fellow outfielders Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays and tell them, “This is the future.”
They’re not anymore; that group, along with Ryan Mountcastle, represent the established core of an Orioles team that like the players themselves have survived a rebuild into this new phase and are now facing the expectation to win head-on.
It wasn’t the easiest path for any of them. But with another wave of players deemed the future – this much deeper and far more hyped than their wave – joining them on the Orioles’ roster in search of a first playoff appearance since 2016, the returning core knows a lot is expected of them. They relish the responsibility.
“Now, you’re starting to see those young guys, the core group that’s been able to stick in the big leagues for a few years being a big core part of this team, now you’re getting some younger talented guys and some veteran guys signed each year,” Hays said. “We had a lot of success last year and now we really have something to build off of going into this year, and we’re expected to win this year. That’s how we view ourselves.”
Plenty of those expectations are built on the talent of Adley Rutschman and top prospects like Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, and DL Hall. They’re part of a significant wave of prospects that could impact the Orioles in 2023. But given the variance of young player performance in the majors without much experience, a not-so-insignificant chunk of the Orioles’ success will rely on getting the best from that former Bowie outfield along with Mountcastle.
Mullins, the former All-Star of the group, will continue to be central to that. His elite center field defense meant he maintained his value in 2022, though his wRC+ of 106 was well below the 136 of his All-Star season.
Of the group, Santander fared best offensively last season. He put together a fully healthy year and had a 120 wRC+ with 33 home runs, solidifying himself as a middle-of-the-order bat for the Orioles in the process. Hays, too, was healthy all season – something he and the Orioles are grateful for – but was far better in the first half than the second.
He had a 122 wRC+ in the first half half and was down to 78 in the second half. He attributed the stark difference to some swing inconsistencies as the season progressed that caused him to miss his pitches over the plate then chase to try and compensate for it, something he’s addressed this winter.
Mountcastle, the youngest of them, was particularly punished by the dimension change at Camden Yards. He had a 106 wRC+ and a .316 wOBA, though his xwOBA of .362 show he was unlucky last year. Considering he’s projected for a 127 wRC+ from FanGraphs’ ZiPS platform, it might just not be the Orioles who feel he’s due for better.
“Mountcastle and Hays are going to be right in there – two good quality right-handed hitters, which we need because a lot of our guys are left-handed,” executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias said. “Mountcastle, when you look at it on paper, he had a very unlucky season. A little bit of that was the dimensions of the wall, but he blasted a lot of balls to center field both here and elsewhere that just didn’t get out. He’s still super young. I think we still have hopes for a huge season for him, and seeing Austin get through a full major league season like that and having a solid season, I think the next step for him is having a better second half.”
The way the Orioles are constructed hasn’t necessarily left a lot to chance, but certainly has introduced a lot of variability into their season. The starting rotation could pan out countless different ways, given the number of candidates, their experience levels, and vagaries of young player performance. Same goes for counting on Henderson and eventually some other young infielders to eventually fill in roles and produce for an entire season there.
But this group is mostly locked into its roles, and a lot of the Orioles’ success could hinge on them. The team won 83 games with what they did last year, but given their experience, it stands to reason they can all improve. Mullins is capable of more offensively and said he was working on improving his left-on-left production this winter. Hays is projected for a 112 wRC+, up from 106 over a full season in 2022, and Santander is at 124 – relatively consistent for his track record.
This core group will have a lot of personal and professional incentive to drive the Orioles’ performance level higher in the coming season, considering their arbitration eligibility and its impact on their long-term standing with the team. Off the field, they’re part of the culture-setting that Brandon Hyde has been so emphatic on in his time with the team–a time this group spans the duration of.
“I think on the discipline side, I think a lot of guys already know what they’re doing,” Mullins said. “It’s a matter of creating that environment where we’re staying relaxed but at the same time keeping that intense focus.”
On the field, they’re likely to be among the most motivated to perform. After all, this Orioles renaissance has been something they’ve lived through every stage of. They had a taste of what it was like before, then played in front of hardly anyone in 2019, no one in 2020, then hardly anyone again in 2021 before the team broke out in 2022. They’re among the only ones with memories of FanFest, but relished the Birdland Caravan events and the amount of excitement the team is generating entering 2023.
Hays said: “It’s great. It’s electric. People are excited. They love the guys that are on this team now. … I’ve heard great things from all the other guys that have been here throughout the few days and it’s just a really exciting time in Baltimore.”