The Orioles' approach to fortifying their bullpen might ultimately define their season

Nothing undermines a good team like a bad bullpen. That makes the Orioles' early-season relief plans all the more important.

There were many factors in the Orioles vastly outperforming expectations last year and competing for a playoff spot deep into September. Brandon Hyde himself has acknowledged one of the most significant ones was the depth and reliability of their bullpen, which no one could have imagined this time last year.

Remember—the Orioles spring bullpen still featured Cole Sulser and Tanner Scott before they were traded to the Marlins in early-April, and new faces like Felix Bautista, Cionel Perez, and Bryan Baker were relative unknowns. There were holdovers like Dillon Tate and Paul Fry, but also relievers converting (Jorge Lopez and Keegan Akin) and the uncertainty that comes with that.

Everyone knows how it went—Lopez became an All-Star closer before he was traded to the Twins, with Bautista’s dominant fastball-splitter combination making him an obvious replacement. Tate and Perez were incredibly effective setup men. Akin and Joey Krehbiel were useful early in the season, while Bryan Baker excelled as the season went on.

All that is to say that while relief pitching can be volatile on the positive side as well, leading to breakouts from pitchers other teams didn’t want but who can hold leads for Hyde, the downside of that volatility is real as well. The news of Mychal Givens’ knee soreness from Brandon Hyde this week was the latest indication that said volatility, and the potential for underperformance in the bullpen, are worthy of concern.

It started on the first day of spring when Mike Elias announced that Tate was dealing with arm soreness that would keep him out of spring training and delay the start of his season, though the corresponding news that Bautista was getting a slow start to his own spring due to knee and shoulder soreness seems to have resolved itself with Bautista being ready close to, if not on, Opening Day.

Givens’ injury may not impact him come the season, and Perez seems to be in fine form, but the question marks begin after them and are only amplified by the potential for not having Givens.

Part of that comes from the lack of clarity on what to expect from the group including Krehbiel, Baker, and Akin. Having any of them at their most effective early in the season will help bridge the gap to Tate’s return and give a reliable option in his place. Akin has pitched well but sparingly in spring training as he’s stretched out for multiple-inning appearances, perhaps with the Orioles mindful of how he wore down last year.

Logan Gillaspie has pitched well statistically in the spring, albeit against not the most impressive competition, and might be able to help more than he did last year if he took a step forward. Yennier Cano still throws hard, but hasn’t done anything to distinguish himself since the Lopez trade. Rule 5 pick Andrew Politi isn’t getting the traditional obsessive Rule 5 pick coverage, but might make the team simply because the Orioles have a spot for him.

What the Orioles are left doing, truthfully, is hoping for last year to repeat itself in the sense of starters becoming reliable relievers. Both Austin Voth and Tyler Wells have the capabilities for that based on their physicality and weapons, even if both would probably prefer to be in the rotation, while the transition of Mike Baumann makes sense at this point in his career.

The sweeper that transformed Voth’s season last year could be an asset out of the bullpen, and Baumann learning the pitch this spring gives him a different movement profile outside his mid-90s fastball and hard vertical slider that can help him miss bats more consistently.

There’s a lot for the Orioles to figure out in the next week or so regarding who they’ll use to reinforce their bullpen and who will be in the Norfolk rotation staying stretched out and providing rotation cover. Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall’s immediate futures influence that some, but you’d figure one of Wells or Spenser Watkins might be made to sacrifice major league time to be minor league rotation depth.

Perhaps not, though. If the bullpen was the reason the Orioles held onto so many leads last year and ended up overperforming the way they did, and the club was at best marginally improved through trades and free agency in the winter, the Orioles probably want to maintain the same level of consistency on the back end.

Whether they have enough conviction in the rest of the roster they’ve built might be a main determinant in that, but no matter how good they think they’ll be, a shaky bullpen might undermine it all. This is an early decision the Orioles will want to get right.