Recapping the Orioles' first day of the Winter Meetings, from Baltimore
But first...a tribute to one of the best baseball men I ever knew, John Tumminia.
This week in San Diego, for those who are there, is about work first and foremost but also reconnecting with the friends from across the country that working in and around baseball allows one to make.
So before I take advantage of the work my (former?) peers are doing on the Orioles beat, I need to acknowledge one who passed this weekend.
When I started writing about baseball for SoxProspects.com and even into my early days of Orioles stories before I joined the beat, John Tumminia encouraged me, challenged me, and informed me every time our paths crossed. He was a longtime White Sox scout who frequented Frederick and the affiliates around here, and of all the people who shared their time and insights with me in the long hours before games, he tops the list of those who made an impact.
His approval when I’d send him an article or show him what I wrote from the game we’d just watched meant the world to me. I’d never be more nervous than when he’d ask to call me ahead of one of his meetings, but I never felt more validated than when he’d follow up and thank me for information that mean he didn’t recommend that blockhead. I never felt better on a drive home late at night than I did after sitting with him for a game, because it meant I’d spent the night learning from one of the best.
John also believed long before I did that the work I did actually registered with anyone who would read it. I know this because he spent the last decade building a growing a charity, Baseball Miracles, that ran clinics around the world in areas of need. He worked tirelessly to solicit donations and put these events on, and I was always happy to spotlight the work he and his team did.
He always reminded me of the power of simply having a platform, and the need to use it well, whether that was writing about baseball or anything else. When I saw the news of his passing and felt compelled to address it, the idea of doing so on this platform felt appropriate. I created this Substack almost a year ago because I felt like I still had something to say about the Orioles, and its success still feels strange to me. But John pushed me to be better when, odds are, hardly anyone read what I had to say. The halls in San Diego are probably full of media members and front office personnel who were informed and encouraged by John’s belief as well.
I hope everyone with someone like him in their life cherishes it and says thank you when the chance presents itself. Thanks for everything, John, and best to your family in this difficult time.
There’s not really a smooth transition into Orioles winter meeting handwringing, so let’s dispense with the idea of trying. Mileage may vary on the Ofreidy Gómez minor league deal, but there was a lot to unpack from Mike Elias’ media session Monday evening. Kudos to those grinding in San Diego for all the information. Here’s what’s notable about what they said Elias said.
Liftoff, re-evaluated
Elias’ now-ubiquitous liftoff declaration, made as 1 was doing damage control after the Trey Mancini and Jorge Lopez trades, has followed both him and the Orioles around ever since, and his clarification (below) makes sense.
Your mileage may vary on that. This newsletter has become a fanciful place of flashy upgrades for the Orioles this weekend, and my feelings aren’t going to be hurt if they don’t do that. I just will be considering two things when evaluating whether liftoff, in fact, is achieved this winter.
First is that if the Orioles are going to make shorter-term, potential bargain-type signings instead of major ones with all of their payroll flexibility, they should be much clearer about why. I understand there’s no value in tipping their hand when it comes to roster construction, but the baseline theory behind making small tweaks would be that they think there’s enough talent in-house and enough improvements on tap to help the team make the next step in 2023.
Elias doesn’t need to shout about how full seasons of Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson will help. Everyone knows that. And he’s come as close as he can to saying Grayson Rodriguez will start in the rotation as he can without guaranteeing it, so fair play there. But if the team isn’t going to entertain a long-term star-level infielder, say it’s because the expectation is Jordan Westburg or Joey Ortiz or whomever their model says will be a better long-term value so everyone understands that.
If you really think you only need starters on one-year deals, then say it’s because Rodriguez and Hall are going to be in the rotation all this season long and the rotation really only needs some depth at this point with those impact starters in the mix. Leaving everything up to interpretation lets people grasp onto whatever they want, and the part where Orioles fans either expect the club to have a nine-figure payroll or be a franchise-mode dreamscape with all homegrown stars leaves a lot open to interpretation.
Second, much more quickly, is there have been plenty of instances when Elias said the resources to compete would be there when the team is good enough to warrant it. Even doubling the payroll from 2022 would leave it indefensibly low, so anything below that will just lead more people to believe the Orioles either don’t have money (which is unlikely) or that they aren’t making it available to the baseball side at the levels they should. Liftoff in the form of major, costly upgrades would put that to bed.
Kyle Gibson’s place in the offseason
Elias said what everyone kind of expected about free agent signing Kyle Gibson, announcing the $10 million deal and noting that he’ll basically be assuming the Jordan Lyles role and hopefully doing a better job.
More importantly, he made it clear that Gibson’s signing didn’t end their pitching pursuit.
Starting pitching contracts seem like they’re going to be quite high this winter–and really, everything is going to be pricey considering the revenue flowing back into the game at the moment. The Orioles will probably have to swallow hard if they’re going multiple years at $15 million or more for a starting pitcher, but at least they’re being proactive about it. The only other times they’ve made those types of commitments have been when the rest of the league picked over the market and left them with Ubaldo Jimenez or Andrew Cashner or Alex Cobb.
I would love to be an observer on these Zoom presentations the Orioles are making. As I said yesterday, I’m sure they’re comprehensive and persuasive. The Orioles’ ballpark dimensions, improving up-the-middle spine, and the balanced schedule are all factors to help their pitches, too. But the team will need to pay up for these types of players, and if they’re willing to do it, I imagine their approach to these courtships is helping them get to the point where players really consider Baltimore.
Based on The Athletic’s reporting that Gibson chose the Orioles over an identical offer from Toronto, it seems they’re doing something right.
Their offseason wish list
The vagaries of looking to upgrade their lineup with a left-handed hitting corner bat with the knowledge that second base time is available too doesn’t do much to narrow down the shopping list, but I think that’s kind of the point.
It’s encouraging to know the priority is still the rotation, but I think that specific need the Orioles are trying to fill is one they can do creatively. When the time comes, that might read as cheaply, but there are a lot of different factors that can allow the Orioles to find a contributor in that vein in a non-apparent way. For starters, the shift ban means there are a lot of left-handed hitters out there who are going to produce at a materially different level than past years. To have the data resources the Orioles (and pretty much any other team) have gives the ability to find players who can improve because of that in 2023 but be paid on the basis of lesser performances in the past.
There’s no telling who that might be or what kind of player they’re looking at, but the volume approach they’re taking with last week’s additions of Franchy Cordero and Lewin Diaz suggest they might try and find a handful of such players to fight it out for a spot. Their roster flexibility makes it so they can search in a lot of different buckets for it.