Tyler Wells' approach to potentially doubling his innings has been to halve his strikeout rate. It's working, but is it permanent?
The Orioles right-hander has the stuff to strike out batters at a much higher clip than he does, which makes how he's succeeded so far in 2022 all the more curious.
Tyler Wells knows there’s a bit of incongruity to the idea that the pitchers he most looks up to are strikeout artists like Nolan Ryan, Justin Verlander, and C.C. Sabathia when he himself is making his mark as a big league starter without the kind of strikeout-heavy approach that defines the modern game.
They also, he notes, are and were bulldogs on the mound who never gave in to hitters and carried that mentality through long and prosperous careers.
Wells’ unique circumstances this year – with in-game pitch limits and a season innings cap meant to protect him after missing 2019 and 2020 due to injury and returning to the mound as a major league Rule 5 pick with 57 innings in 2021 – mean he can’t use his mid-90s fastball or four-pitch mix the way it worked a year ago, when he struck out over a batter per inning.
So, he’s choosing to take the attack mindset of his idols to another level, and creating a pitcher it’s hard to find comparisons for.
“He’s different to every guy I’ve ever caught,” veteran catcher Robinson Chirinos told me.
Trying to find pitchers who have not only carried out success the way Wells has – a 3.62 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP with just 5.43 strikeouts per nine innings – isn’t an easy task.
Since the start of 2016, only five starters have struck out fewer than six batters per nine in at least 110 innings and ended with a sub-4.00 ERA: Zach Davies twice (in 2017 and 2019), then Andrew Cashner (2017), Brett Anderson (2019), Colby Lewis (2016), and Parker Bridwell (2017). None had a WHIP as low as Wells’ at this point (1.09), and like Wells, the lack of strikeouts meant their FIP and xFIP were all over four.
It’s a list that’s basically filled with the odd soft-tosser, the crafty veteran who is pitching to contact, and some one-off pitchers who got by without missing bats. Wells on the surface has better stuff than all of them, and says he’s essentially not striking out batters by choice.
“I’ve gotten to the point where I don’t really care about the big [strikeout] numbers,” Wells said. “I care about making sure guys don’t get on base and create chaotic innings, trying to attack that. I’m just trying to compete and it’s a process. When you’re on an innings limit, you feel like you sort of restrict yourself in certain aspects.”
The only pitchers on the aforementioned list who pushed into the same velocity range as Wells is this year were Cashner and Bridwell, two pitchers who had pretty hittable fastballs. Wells’ fastball has been hit hardest of any of his pitches, but the weak contact he gets when throwing his secondary pitches over the plate is distinguishing him this year.
Among 121 pitchers with at least 750 pitches entering Tuesday, Wells had the second-best expected slugging percentage on non-fastballs in the strike zone (.280) and fourth-best in expected weighted on-base average against on those pitches (.240). While Wells’ fastball has been hit hard at times this year, he’s taken advantage of having three other pitches to use and getting results when he throws them in the strike zone.
Perhaps that’s one way Wells can sustain what he’s done so far. Even if there aren’t many comparable pitchers for the results he’s enjoyed, baseballsavant.com lists some interesting similar pitchers in terms of his velocity and movement profiles of his pitches: Houston’s Luis Garcia and José Urquidy.
Garcia, the runner-up for Rookie of the Year last year, and Urquidy entered the Astros organization when Mike Elias and Sig Mejdal were in that front office. That group is well-known for its pursuit of specific pitch traits and characteristics, and the pitching program they brought over with Chris Holt is able to hone and improve certain traits particularly well.
Others on the list include Kansas City’s Jonathan Heasley, Chicago’s Davis Martin, and Boston’s Michael Wacha. Garcia is listed as the most similar, but is the only one with an above-average strikeout rate.
That said, the reliever version of Wells from 2021 struck out batters at nearly twice the rate he has this season – 10.26 per nine compared to this year’s 5.43. His pitches are essentially moving the same way as they did last year, at least by average spin rate. His fastball spin is still elite, and his low walk rate last year seems to be an indicator that he can put the ball where he wants to.
With the prescription likely to at least double his workload this year, he’s decided he wants to keep it in the strike zone instead of trying to work outside the zone and get chases.
“It’s hard for me to go out there and want to chase strikeouts when you only have a certain amount of pitches you can go per outing,” Wells said. “If I started doing that, it turns into eight, 10 pitch at-bats and all of a sudden I’ve used up a good portion of my pitches already just on one guy.”
Wells’ big arm and pitch profile not changing means, in theory, he can go back to being the high-strikeout pitcher he was as a reliever once he has a full-season in the rotation built up in his arm. Efficiency will always be the goal, and the game’s best starters can strike batters out without running up their pitch counts. But Wells also understands that should his run of form continue for the rest of the season, changing his approach again may not be worth it.
“I wouldn’t say that I’ll be much different but I’d definitely try and adjust some things because I won’t have to worry about it as much,” Wells said. “At the same time, too, I could be the same exact person if it produces good results. My goal and my job is to go out there and give the team a chance to win. Hopefully, we’ll kind of see how that continues to play out but hopefully, I do make some adjustments and I can continue to produce at a high level and keep the team in it while hopefully getting those strikeout numbers up.”