The Orioles' big-name pitching prospects being delayed has made for an uneven year on the farm

Without dominant years from Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall, the Orioles will probably end up giving their minor league pitching honors to someone most fans have never heard of.

Any simulation of a universe where the Orioles enter September with a chance to make the playoffs likely would have featured Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall dominating in their rotation at this time, not rehabbing at Aberdeen and learning life in the Norfolk bullpen.

Yet without them or John Means in the fold, it’s Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, and Austin Voth helping propel the Orioles to contention the way they did this weekend in Houston.

Their absence as dominant forces atop the minors has also left a similarly hard-to-predict landscape on the minor league pitching side, where the lack of a flagbearer in terms of a high-performing top pick has democratized success in the system plenty.

No one has to live up to their gaudy strikeout numbers or performances, and as a result, it’s likely the organization will be handing out the minor league pitcher of the year award named for Jim Palmer to someone who your average fan has never even heard of.

In a sense, it will be a fitting historical note for an out-of-nowhere season. Outside of Bradish’s ascension, there hasn’t really been anything that has gone according to plan — unless you want to say the plan is to find pitching under every rock and improve it with a talented coaching staff that works with a specific plan.

That’s really the difference at the big league level this season. They found many of their top pitchers on the scrap heap, same as in past years. They’re just a lot better now. Perhaps they have traits like Voth’s curveball or Cionel Perez’s slider that made them targets, but for whatever reason, the outcome is different.

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It’s still emblematic of what seems to be the holistic pitching plan, though. There will inevitably be trades for top starting pitchers to supplement it when the time comes. The Orioles have too many hitting prospects to fit into one lineup, and upgrading the rotation will be the goal with those deemed surplus to requirements.

In the meantime, they’re just using trades and draft picks to flood their organization with interesting arms and putting their coaches to work. Even if that’s the plan, the minor league portion of that can’t look as they expected it to in what’s been a strange year on the farm.

There, Bradish’s graduation is about the only thing that has gone according to plan. Who knows when Rodriguez would have joined the big league rotation if not for his injury?

Now it’s just a race against time to hit his affiliate rehab tour stops before being deemed ready to pitch in the big leagues. Hall should be up soon in a relief role, and honestly, that might be more according to plan than anyone will admit given their desire to keep his innings down entering the season.

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Without those two standouts, it’s proven to be another year that’s hard to figure when it comes to the Orioles’ pitching program in the minors. Injuries have taken down some of last year’s top performers, and considering none were taken high in the draft like Hall and Rodriguez anyway, it’s not like the players who were expected to take the leap nor those who actually did were household names anyway.

Among the injured include Kyle Brnovich and Zach Peek, both acquired in the Dylan Bundy trade with Bradish and both requiring Tommy John for elbow injuries. There was some buzz around big right-hander Brandon Young, a 2020 undrafted free agent, but I saw his last start in April when his fastball was in the upper 80s – down significantly from normal velocity – and he hasn’t pitched since.

Plenty of others have taken steps forward in their place. Among pitchers with at least 50 innings, Rodriguez is still tops in pretty much every rate category, but 2021 17th-round pick Ryan Long has spent the whole year at Delmarva and has a 2.82 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, albeit with a 4.66 xFIP. Noah Denoyer recently returned to the Bowie roster after a few weeks out, but the 2019 undrafted free agent has a 2.95 ERA over two levels, with a 0.98 WHIP and a 3.02 xFIP.

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Justin Armbruester has thrown an organization-high 105 innings with an 3.77 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP while striking out 9.9 batters per nine. Next in line in terms of innings are Garrett Stallings (101 2/3 innings at Bowie) and Ryan Watson, who has pitched 99 innings between Bowie and Norfolk.

Stallings had a disastrous June but still has a 3.78 xFIP while striking out 9.5 batters per nine, while Watson has been one of the pleasant surprises in the entire system. An undrafted free agent in 2020, Watson has a 3.45 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP this season.

Not everyone has been an out-of-nowhere success story, though. Some recent high draft picks are also impressing. Drew Rom, a 2018 third-round pick, recently was bumped to Norfolk at age-22 after he struck out 11 batters per nine at Bowie with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. Mike Baumann, who has been up in the major league bullpen several times this year, has quietly impressed for Norfolk. Since his last demotion, he has a 3.35 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and 47 strikeouts in 37 2/3 innings over 10 starts.  

In the low minors, Ignacio Feliz, Jean Pinto, Carlos Tavera and Daniel Lloyd also have impressive strikeout rates supported by good peripherals. They’re still bedding in Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott — who I’ve seen start at Bowie and was impressed by — and Seth Johnson’s healthy return will make a difference when that happens next year.

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Depending on one’s perspective, this can mean a lot of things. If the expectation is for dominant seasons like Rodriguez and Baumann and before them Hunter Harvey and Dylan Bundy have enjoyed, no one has stepped up to reach that level.

That also takes a level of draft capital investment that the Orioles don’t seem prepared to make right now on the pitching front, instead using a more depth-based approach and hoping for players like the names listed above to distinguish themselves.

The merits of that certainly can be debated, but considering how the Orioles have improved their pitching staff this year and built up their depth base of internal players who can supplement that group in the coming years, it’s hard to completely write off.

It’ll be solidified in a few weeks time when, alongside whichever high-flying hitter wins Minor League Player of the Year — Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser, Darell Hernaiz, or anyone else — is a pitcher who wins his version of that award who many fans will only just be hearing about for the first time.