How to best frame the Orioles' pending Jordan Lyles decision, no matter the outcome or perspective
The Orioles' Jordan Lyles decision this week will definitely mean something. Depending on what they do and how one feels about it, here's what I see each case representing.
[Before we get started, a programming note. The schedule here has been much more inconsistent since the end of the season than I’d hoped for. A combination of lots of family commitments and my other jobs has made it hard to consistently write to the schedule and quality I strive for. I hope that we’re near an end to that, and also realize there was no free story last week. So, there will be two this week, in addition to two stories for paid subscribers. Hopefully, this will be a springboard to get things back on track. Appreciate everyone for sticking with me, this is set to be a big offseason for the Orioles and I’m glad for the opportunity to keep writing for this growing audience. Thanks again for subscribing! Now, on to the week’s pressing matter]
Jordan Lyles’ contract option, worth $11 million with a $1 million buyout, represents the most pressing piece of business when it comes to the beginning of the Orioles’ offseason. There are a lot of different ways to spend $10 million to solidify a starting rotation, and choosing to do so on a rather low-variance innings-eater like Lyles whose 2022 in Baltimore was among the best seasons of his career is certainly a viable one. There’s also the potential to spend that kind of money on upside, whether it’s a pitcher coming off a down year with signals of improvement at the end of the season (not unlike Lyles at this time last year) or someone with a better track record coming off an injury.
In reality, Lyles’ option deadline this week isn’t permanent. The Orioles picked Jose Iglesias’ $3.5 million option in 2020 to lock him into that price in November 2020 then traded him a month later to the Angels. Similarly, Mike Elias said in December 2020 regarding right-hander Alex Cobb that the Orioles were “planning on keeping him all year” as he entered the final year of his contract, then traded him two months later, also to the Angels.
Does this mean Lyles will be an Angel by Christmas if his option is picked up? It certainly doesn’t not mean that. But it will mean something, whatever ends up happening this week. And both options could mean good things for the Orioles’ offseason and bad ones. So here’s a breakdown of the top justifications for any perspective once the decision is made. (Neutrals, there is no place for you in this discourse.)